Feasibility Study for Geothermal Energy Investment and Green Hydrogen Production in Yemen

Executive Summary

This report assesses the feasibility of investing in Yemen's geothermal energy potential, specifically examining the dual objective of meeting domestic electricity demand and producing green hydrogen for global export. Yemen possesses significant, largely untapped geothermal resources, strategically positioned to contribute to the global energy transition. The technical pathways for geothermal power generation, electrolysis for hydrogen production, and liquefaction for transport are well-established. However, the current investment climate in Yemen presents formidable challenges, including pervasive political instability, severe security risks, and profound deficiencies in existing infrastructure and governance.

The analysis indicates that while the long-term vision offers transformative economic and environmental benefits for Yemen, its realization is contingent upon a fundamental shift in the security and governance landscape. A phased development strategy, coupled with robust international partnerships and significant de-risking mechanisms, would be essential. The report concludes that a viable project necessitates not only a thorough technical and economic assessment but, more critically, a concerted and sustained effort to address the deep-seated challenges that currently impede large-scale foreign investment and reliable export operations.

1. Introduction: Project Vision and Global Energy Transition Context

1.1 Global Imperative for Renewable Energy and Green Hydrogen

The global energy landscape is undergoing a profound transformation, driven by an urgent imperative to address climate change and reduce reliance on finite fossil fuel resources.1 This shift has propelled sustainable and renewable energy sources to the forefront of national and international agendas. Among these, geothermal energy stands out for its unique attributes, offering a consistent and low-emission power supply that is not subject to the intermittency of other renewables like solar or wind.1

Within this evolving paradigm, green hydrogen has emerged as a particularly promising and environmentally friendly alternative. Produced through the electrolysis of water using renewable electricity, green hydrogen offers a clean energy carrier with zero carbon emissions at the point of production.2 The global demand for green hydrogen is projected to expand dramatically, with forecasts indicating a potential demand of approximately 530 million tons by 2050, which could displace an estimated 10.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent.4 The market is already experiencing substantial growth, with projections of an increase from US

5.40billionin2024toUS25.20 billion by 2029, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 36.1%.5 This robust demand underscores the strategic importance of developing new green hydrogen production hubs globally.

1.2 Strategic Importance for Yemen

Yemen is currently grappling with a severe and protracted energy crisis. The nation suffers from significant generation capacity inadequacy, with most of its Public Electricity Corporation (PEC) power plants being antiquated and operating at low efficiency.6 The country's electricity supply has historically been heavily dependent on expensive, imported fossil fuels such as Mazut, Diesel, and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), a reliance that has led to widespread and prolonged blackouts across the country.6 Current estimates suggest that while 76% of the population has some form of electricity access, only a small fraction, approximately 12%, relies on the public utility grid, often receiving only one or two hours of grid electricity per day.10 Many households resort to small solar pico systems as a stopgap measure.10

In this context, geothermal energy presents a compelling opportunity for Yemen. As a stable, baseload, and locally-produced clean energy source, geothermal power can significantly contribute to addressing the nation's severe energy deficit, fostering energy independence, and supporting economic recovery and diversification.1 The project under consideration proposes a dual imperative: to harness geothermal energy to meet critical internal electricity needs and simultaneously to produce green hydrogen as a high-value export commodity. The nation's dire energy crisis and heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels underscore the immediate domestic need for reliable power.6 Concurrently, the burgeoning global green hydrogen market offers a pathway for Yemen to establish a new, significant export industry.4 This dual approach means that geothermal power can serve to stabilize critical internal energy deficits while simultaneously creating a new, high-value export commodity.

A notable phenomenon in Yemen, often referred to as the "solar revolution," has seen a grassroots adoption of solar energy for distributed, off-grid applications.7 This widespread use, driven by immediate energy scarcity and the collapse of the centralized grid, has provided essential relief for basic needs in households, schools, and health centers.7 While effective for addressing immediate humanitarian needs and enhancing resilience, these solar solutions do not provide the consistent, baseload power required for industrial-scale operations such as green hydrogen production. Geothermal energy, with its inherent consistency 1, directly addresses this gap, positioning it as a strategic asset capable of supporting both national development and international trade. Investing in geothermal for hydrogen export is therefore not merely an economic venture but a strategic move that could transform Yemen's role in the global energy market from a fossil fuel importer to a green energy exporter, potentially enhancing its long-term stability and resilience, provided the underlying conflict issues can be effectively managed.

2. Yemen's Geothermal Energy Potential: A Technical Assessment

2.1 Geological and Tectonic Setting

Yemen's geological position is exceptionally favorable for geothermal energy development. The country is situated at one of the world's most active plate boundaries: the triple junction formed by the Gulf of Aden, the Red Sea, and the Eastern African Rift System.1 This unique tectonic setting generates significant tectonic and volcanic activity, which is well-documented throughout Yemen's geological history, both past and recent. This geological dynamism leads to anomalous heat flow at crustal levels, making the region highly prospective for geothermal resources.14

Geoscientific studies indicate that anomalous heat flow in Yemen likely commenced approximately 40 million years ago, reaching its peak around 12 million years ago.14 The present geothermal gradient in the Red Sea region is notably elevated, varying from 49 to 77 °C/km.14 Further evidence supporting the presence of active hydrothermal systems and mantle magmas at crustal levels is derived from the relatively high Helium-3/Helium-4 (3He/4He) ratios measured in CO2-rich springs across several areas of Yemen, including the central volcanic plateau and the Hadramaut region.14 These geochemical indicators confirm the deep-seated heat sources necessary for viable geothermal systems.

2.2 Identified Geothermal Fields and Characteristics

The presence of numerous thermal springs, fumaroles, and boiling water pools across continental Yemen serves as strong evidence of the high potential for geothermal energy, indicating widespread geothermal manifestations and underlying active hydrothermal systems.56 More than 83 hot springs are distributed across various regions in almost all governorates of Yemen, with water temperatures ranging from approximately 40°C to 96.3°C and flow rates varying from one to 80 liters per second.56 Most of these springs are concentrated in the western highlands, with elevations varying from 50 meters in coastal governorates like Al Hudaydah and Hadhramaut.56

Key geothermal fields specifically highlighted in previous studies and recent observations include:

Al Lisi-Isbil Geothermal Field: This field is located approximately 100 kilometers south of Sana'a, the capital city.11 Investigations have revealed significant thermal activity within this area. One site within the Al Lisi volcanic mountain records a temperature of 89°C, while a fumarole site in the Isbil volcanic mountain shows a temperature of 43°C.11 Furthermore, 118 wells in the Al Lisi-Isbil area exhibit temperatures ranging from 21°C to 59°C, with depths varying from 40 meters to 350 meters.11 The widespread hydrothermal activity in the mapped area has led to visible thermal alteration of a considerable portion of the rocks, underscoring the active nature of the system.11
Alsyani-Algandeah Geothermal Field: Situated approximately 250 kilometers from Sana'a, this field also represents a significant geothermal prospect.11 While its specific characteristics in terms of temperatures and well data are less detailed in the available information, its identification as a distinct geothermal area suggests considerable potential.
Dhamar: A preliminary survey conducted in the 1980s identified geothermal potential south of Sana'a, with Dhamar emerging as a particularly promising location. This resource was estimated to be sufficient to support a 50 MW power plant, with an ultimate resource potential ranging between 250 MW and 500 MW.16 The city of Damt, administratively part of Al Dhale'e governorate, also contains 9 hot springs, with temperatures reaching 52°C and significant dissolved minerals, leading to its official declaration as a therapeutic tourism area in 2004.56
Shabwah Governorate: The Rwdhom area in Shabwah governorate, along with Ain Al-Juwairi and Ain Ba Ma'bad, are noted for having numerous hot springs.56 Rwdhom's proximity to the Balhaf YLNG liquefaction and export terminal for LNG presents a highly potential investment opportunity for facilitating transportation of green hydrogen.44
Abyan Governorate: The Kuboth area in Abyan governorate (specifically in Modiyah and Ja'ar districts) contains several hot springs, including "Kabath," with temperatures ranging from 60°C to 69.2°C.56 These locations offer high potential due to their proximity to export terminals and sea accessibility.
Hadramout Governorate: The Al Hami area in Hadramout governorate is also identified as having hot springs.56 Like Abyan, Hadramout's coastal location provides advantageous proximity to export terminals and sea accessibility.
Taiz Governorate: Five hot springs have been identified in Taiz, located in Wadi Al-Tuwair and Wadi Rasyan, with temperatures ranging from 40°C to 66°C. These springs are considered to have international scientific specifications.56
Lahj Governorate: Hot springs are found in Halimin district and Karsh city, including Ain Shar'ah and Ain Karsh, with temperatures of 64°C and 17°C respectively. The springs in Lahj are noted for their high concentration of dissolved minerals.56

The majority of Yemen's thermal zones align with the main Red Sea trend, while thermal features along the southern coastal plain parallel the Gulf of Aden trend, connecting to the opening of the Red Sea graben and the separation of the Arabian shield from Africa.15

2.3 Estimated Geothermal Power Potential

Estimates for Yemen's overall geothermal power potential vary significantly across different studies, reflecting the preliminary nature of much of the existing data and the challenges in conducting comprehensive surveys.

One study estimated that approximately 2,900 MW of power could be available from geothermal sources in Yemen.16
Another, more recent study suggests a much larger potential, indicating that Yemen's geothermal energy could produce about 28.5 GW of electricity.15
The theoretical potential of geothermal resources in Yemen could meet over 20% of the country's projected electricity demand by 2030, if fully developed.18

The wide range in these estimates, from hundreds of megawatts to tens of gigawatts, highlights a critical data gap. This variation stems from differing methodologies, with some figures based on preliminary surveys and others on broader theoretical assessments, rather than comprehensive, modern evaluations. The absence of updated, precise data is directly attributable to the interruption of the BGR GEOTHERM Programme in Yemen, which aimed to finance an exploratory borehole but had to cease activities in 2014 due to security concerns.12 This situation means that while the potential is significant, the true developable capacity for high-enthalpy power generation remains unquantified.

This uncertainty implies that any initial investment would necessitate a substantial allocation for comprehensive geological and geophysical surveys, followed by exploratory drilling. These early-stage activities are inherently high-risk in geothermal development 18, as they aim to confirm the resource's viability and quantify its extractable energy. Therefore, a phased investment approach, commencing with detailed resource assessment, is crucial to mitigate financial exposure and build confidence in the project's long-term prospects.

Table 1: Yemen's Identified Geothermal Areas and Characteristics

Geothermal Field Name	Location (relative to Sana'a)	Key Manifestations	Recorded Temperatures (°C)	Well Depths (m)	Estimated Power Potential (MW/GW)	Proximity to Export/Sea Access
Al Lisi-Isbil	~100 km south	Thermal springs, fumaroles, 118 wells	89 (site), 43 (fumarole), 21-59 (wells)	40-350	Not specified for field	Not specified
Alsyani-Algandeah	~250 km south	Not specified	Not specified	Not specified	Not specified for field	Not specified
Dhamar (Damt)	South of Sana'a	Hot springs (9 identified in Damt)	50 (site), 52 (Damt springs) 56	Not specified	50 MW (initial), 250-500 MW (ultimate) 16	Not specified
Shabwah (Rwdhom, Ain Al-Juwairi, Ain Ba Ma'bad)	Shabwah Governorate	Hot springs	40-96.3 (general range for Yemen) 56	Not specified	Not specified for field	Very near Balhaf YLNG liquefaction and export terminal 44
Abyan (Kabath area)	Modiyah and Ja'ar districts	Hot springs (8 identified)	60-69.2 56	Not specified	Not specified for field	High potential, near export terminals and sea accessibility 56
Hadramout (Al Hami)	Hadramout Governorate	Hot springs	40-96.3 (general range for Yemen) 56	Not specified	Not specified for field	High potential, near export terminals and sea accessibility 56
Taiz (Wadi Al-Tuwair, Wadi Rasyan)	Taiz Governorate	Hot springs (5 identified)	40-66 56	Not specified	Not specified for field	Not specified
Lahj (Ain Shar'ah, Ain Karsh)	Halimin district, Karsh city	Hot springs	64, 17 56	Not specified	Not specified for field	Not specified
Overall Yemen	N/A	Thermal springs, fumaroles, boiling water pools	Up to 89 (surface), 200 (deep reservoir) 11	Up to 3290 (deep reservoir) 15	2,900 MW 16, 28.5 GW 15	N/A

The table above consolidates the fragmented information available on Yemen's geothermal resources, providing a clearer picture for potential investors. Including temperature and depth data helps in understanding the quality of the geothermal resource, as higher temperatures generally indicate more viable resources for power generation. By explicitly noting where power potential estimates are available or lacking, the table highlights the critical need for further, more detailed exploration, particularly to verify the larger gigawatt-scale estimates. This reinforces the necessity for a phased development strategy, allowing for initial prioritization of exploration efforts in areas with some existing data, such as Dhamar, before committing to larger, less defined potentials.

3. Yemen's Energy Landscape and Domestic Demand

3.1 Current Electricity Generation and Energy Deficit

Yemen's electricity sector is in a state of severe crisis, characterized by profound generation capacity inadequacy and widespread operational inefficiencies. Most of the existing power plants operated by the Public Electricity Corporation (PEC) are old, operate at low efficiency, and are heavily reliant on expensive, imported fossil fuels such as Mazut, Diesel, and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG).6 Prior to 2011, the country's total installed generation capacity was approximately 1.223 GW, with renewable energy contributing a negligible 0.009% to the total energy mix.6

The protracted conflict that began in early 2015 has exacerbated this situation, causing extensive damage to electricity infrastructure and leading to a drastic reduction in power generation capabilities. Centralized electric grids have almost entirely collapsed in several governorates.6 As a result, total electricity production in some areas can fall below 100 MW, primarily due to persistent fuel shortages and critical maintenance issues.8 The national energy deficit was estimated to exceed 2,000 MW in 2020.8 Earlier, in 2013, the supply gap was around 500 MW, a figure that worsened significantly by 2015 due to the escalating conflict.17

The impact on the population is severe: while approximately 76% of Yemenis have some form of electricity access, only a mere 12% depend on the public utility grid, often receiving power for just one or two hours a day.10 Rural areas are particularly underserved, with only 23% of the population having access to grid electricity.12 This pervasive lack of reliable electricity has crippled essential services, with hospitals struggling to operate, schools unable to provide quality education, businesses facing severe operational challenges, and water systems disrupted due to reliance on electricity for pumping.9

3.2 Existing Grid Infrastructure and Challenges

The technical assessment of Yemen's electrical sector reveals a dilapidated and inefficient grid infrastructure. Key issues include:

Aging and Inefficient Power Plants: The majority of existing PEC power plants are well beyond their expected lifespan, contributing to low efficiency and high operational costs.6
Fuel Dependency: The heavy reliance on expensive and environmentally harmful diesel and heavy fuel oils makes the energy supply vulnerable to price fluctuations and geopolitical disruptions.6
High System Losses: The grid suffers from substantial technical losses due to factors such as single-circuit distribution feeders, excessively long feeders (e.g., 40 km 11 kV feeders in Sana'a), poor voltage regulation, overloaded or underloaded transformers, undersized older feeder cross-sections, aging terminations and joints, and radial network configurations. Non-technical losses, primarily electricity theft and metering discrepancies, further compound the problem.6
Isolated Grid Systems: Aging transmission and distribution networks, coupled with isolated grid systems, hinder overall efficiency and expansion efforts.8

Despite the dire state of the centralized grid, Yemen has witnessed a remarkable "solar revolution".11 A significant portion of the population has adopted solar energy, particularly for decentralized, off-grid applications.7 This adoption has dramatically reduced energy costs in some microgrids, from 42 cents per hour to just 2 cents per hour.7 Solar systems have provided immediate and vital relief for households, schools, and health centers, enabling critical public services to resume.7 This widespread adoption of solar technology, which has a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of 7-8 in Yemen 8, is a direct consequence of the grid's collapse and the severe fuel scarcity.7 It represents a market-driven, decentralized response to an immediate humanitarian crisis, rather than a strategic, industrial-scale energy plan. While highly beneficial for resilience and meeting basic needs, this reliance on distributed solar highlights the systemic failure of the centralized grid and the absence of consistent, baseload power necessary for larger economic activities. Geothermal development would not directly compete with these existing solar solutions but would rather complement them by addressing the need for stable, large-scale power for industrial and grid-level applications. This also suggests a potential pathway for geothermal to contribute to grid restoration by initially supporting municipal or regional "island grids" before expanding to a national level.6

3.3 Future Energy Demand Forecasts for Yemen

Yemen's energy demand is projected to grow substantially in the coming decades. In 2020, the maximum electricity load was recorded at 3,809 MW.6 Based on trend analyses, future electricity consumption and power demand are forecasted as follows:

Energy Consumption (GWh):

33,278 GWh by 2025 6
41,470 GWh by 2030 6
100,014 GWh by 2050 6

Power Demand (MW):

4,749 MW by 2025 6
5,918 MW by 2030 6
14,271 MW by 2050 6

More broadly, the total maximum demand in 2050 is projected to range between 6 GW and 14 GW under a conservative scenario, and between 16 GW and 66 GW under a more aggressive suggested scenario.6 These projections underscore the immense and growing need for additional generation capacity.

3.4 Role of Geothermal in Meeting Domestic Needs vs. Export

Given the substantial energy deficit and the forecasted growth in demand, geothermal power is uniquely positioned to play a critical role in meeting Yemen's domestic energy needs. Its ability to provide consistent, baseload power can significantly diversify the national energy mix and reduce the country's heavy dependence on volatile fossil fuels.1

The user's query explicitly states that a portion of the produced electrical energy from future geothermal power plants should be utilized for green hydrogen production and liquefaction for export. This necessitates a strategic allocation of the geothermal output. Geothermal's characteristic as a baseload power source makes it particularly suitable for industrial processes like electrolysis, which require a stable and continuous electricity supply, unlike intermittent renewable sources such as solar or wind.1 This inherent reliability makes geothermal a strategic asset for stable hydrogen production.

A feasible investment strategy would therefore require a balanced allocation approach. Initially, geothermal capacity could prioritize stabilizing critical domestic infrastructure, such as hospitals, water pumps, and essential services, and supporting nascent industrial zones. As domestic grid reliability improves and additional geothermal capacity comes online, a larger portion of the generated power could be strategically directed towards green hydrogen export. This phased approach would serve to mitigate immediate energy poverty while simultaneously building a long-term revenue stream from high-value exports, thereby creating a sustainable pathway for national development.

4. Green Hydrogen Production: Technology and Economics

4.1 Geothermal-Powered Electrolysis: Technical Overview

Green hydrogen production, using geothermal energy, involves powering the process of electrolysis to split water molecules into hydrogen and oxygen. This method offers a clean and sustainable pathway for hydrogen generation, as it utilizes renewable geothermal energy instead of fossil fuels.2

Various types of electrolyzers are available for this process, each with distinct operational characteristics and temperature requirements:

Polymer Electrolyte Membrane (PEM) Electrolyzers: These operate at lower temperatures, typically between 70°C and 90°C.3
Alkaline Electrolyzers: Commercial alkaline electrolyzers generally operate at less than 100°C.3
Solid Oxide Electrolyzers (SOECs): These advanced electrolyzers operate at significantly higher temperatures, around 700°C to 800°C, utilizing a solid ceramic material as the electrolyte.3

A key advantage of integrating geothermal energy with electrolysis, particularly with high-temperature electrolyzers like SOECs, is the potential for enhanced efficiency. High-temperature electrolysis can directly utilize the heat from geothermal resources, thereby reducing the electrical energy consumption required for the process and consequently lowering overall production costs.2 Companies are actively developing integrated geothermal-electrolysis systems to maximize resource utilization and create more efficient and cost-effective hydrogen production processes.2 Yemen's geothermal resources, with documented temperatures up to 89°C at surface manifestations in Al Lisi 11 and deeper reservoirs potentially reaching 200°C 15, suggest the possibility of leveraging these higher-temperature geothermal fluids. This could lead to more efficient electrolysis processes, reducing the overall energy input from electricity. This inherent synergy between Yemen's geothermal potential and high-temperature electrolysis technologies offers a competitive advantage in terms of energy efficiency and potentially lower operational costs compared to regions that rely solely on intermittent renewables for electrolysis, making the overall project more compelling.

4.2 Production Costs: Analysis of Capital and Operational Costs

The economic viability of a geothermal-to-green-hydrogen project hinges on a thorough understanding of both geothermal power generation costs and green hydrogen production costs.

Geothermal Power Generation Costs:

The cost of developing geothermal power plants varies significantly depending on the resource temperature. Average overnight capital costs (OCC) for hydrothermal plants range from approximately $4,156 per kilowatt (kW) for high-temperature resources (>=200°C) to $17,060 per kW for lower-temperature resources (<135°C).21 The Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for geothermal power typically ranges from $61 to $102 per megawatt-hour (MWh).22 This makes geothermal energy competitive with conventional fossil fuel sources, such as natural gas ($70-$117/MWh) and coal ($68-$166/MWh).22 The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has set a target to reduce the LCOE of geothermal to $45/MWh within a decade, indicating a trajectory of declining costs.23

Green Hydrogen Production Costs (Electrolysis):

Currently, green hydrogen produced via electrolysis using renewable power typically costs between US10andUS15 per kilogram (kg).25 This is significantly higher than grey hydrogen, which is produced from fossil fuels and costs around US$2-6/kg.25 However, global initiatives like the "Hydrogen Energy Earthshot" aim to drastically reduce the cost of clean hydrogen to $1 per kg by 2030.3 Projections for high-volume, untaxed hydrogen costs from PEM electrolyzers indicate a potential range of ~$2/kg-H2 to $7/kg-H2.27 The price of electricity is a critical determinant of hydrogen production costs; a consistent electricity price of $0.03/kWh, for instance, can significantly lower the overall cost of hydrogen production.28

The current high costs of green hydrogen production, when juxtaposed with the lower costs of fossil-fuel-derived hydrogen, present a challenge. However, the competitive LCOE of geothermal energy and the aggressive global targets for reducing green hydrogen costs to $1/kg by 2030 indicate a rapid technological and economic maturation of the green hydrogen sector.3 This suggests that while initial investment costs for both geothermal infrastructure and electrolyzers may be substantial 5, the long-term economic viability of a geothermal-to-hydrogen project in Yemen aligns with these global trends towards significant cost reduction and increasing demand. This implies that strategic financing, potentially involving concessional loans and public-private partnerships 18, will be crucial to bridge the initial investment gap and realize future profitability.

Table 2: Comparative Costs of Green Hydrogen Production via Electrolysis

Electrolysis Technology	Operating Temperature (°C)	Current Capital Cost ($/kW)	Current Green H2 Production Cost ($/kg)	Target H2 Production Cost ($/kg) by 2030	Key Advantages	Key Disadvantages
PEM Electrolyzers	70-90	~$2,000 27	$5-7 27, $10-15 25	~$1-2 3	Responsive to dynamic power, compact	Higher capital cost, requires pure water
Alkaline Electrolyzers	<100	Not specified	$10-15 25	~$1-2 3	Lower capital cost, mature technology	Less responsive to dynamic power, larger footprint
Solid Oxide Electrolyzers	700-800	Not specified	Not specified	Not specified	High efficiency with waste heat, lower electricity use	High operating temperature, material challenges

This table provides a critical technical-economic overview, directly addressing the "feasibility" aspect by enabling a clear comparison of different electrolysis technologies. It allows potential investors to understand the trade-offs between capital expenditure, operational efficiency, and the potential to leverage Yemen's specific geothermal characteristics, such as higher temperatures, which could be advantageous for Solid Oxide Electrolyzers. By including target costs for 2030, the table assists in evaluating the long-term competitiveness and viability of the project in a rapidly evolving market, which is essential for strategic, long-term investments. Explicitly listing capital and operational costs, and noting the impact of electricity prices, helps identify the primary cost reduction levers for the project, guiding technology selection and financial planning.

5. Hydrogen Liquefaction and Export Logistics

5.1 Liquefaction Process and Costs

For green hydrogen to be economically transported over long distances, particularly across oceans, liquefaction is a critical step. Hydrogen liquefaction is an energy-intensive process; current industrial liquefiers typically require between 10 and 20 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of energy per kilogram of hydrogen.30

The capital costs for hydrogen liquefaction plant facilities are substantial. Estimates range from $50 million to $800 million, depending on the plant's capacity, which can vary from 6,000 kg/day to 200,000 kg/day.30 For a medium-sized plant with a capacity of 27,000 kg/day, the capital cost is estimated to be around $100 million.30 It is observed that the capital cost per kg/day of capacity decreases as the overall plant capacity increases, although this reduction experiences diminishing returns at very large scales.30

The liquefaction process significantly contributes to the overall levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH). For a 27,000 kg/day liquefier, the capital cost contribution alone is approximately $1.40 per kg of hydrogen. When additional recurring costs, such as electricity for operation, are factored in, the overall levelized cost for liquid hydrogen can reach approximately $2.75 per kg.30 This highlights that while production of green hydrogen is a primary cost, the subsequent liquefaction and transport add a considerable layer of expense.

5.2 Global Hydrogen Market Demand and Pricing Trends

The global market for green hydrogen is poised for massive expansion. Demand is projected to reach 530 million tons by 2050 4, with green hydrogen potentially fulfilling 24% of global energy demand by that year.5 This growth is primarily fueled by declining electrolyzer costs and strong governmental support for decarbonization initiatives worldwide.5

Current prices for green hydrogen vary geographically. For instance, in Q2 2025, prices were approximately US3865permetricton(MT)intheUSA,US4915/MT in Japan, US5352/MTintheNetherlands,US6260/MT in the UAE, and US$4490/MT in Saudi Arabia.32 These prices are influenced by factors such as renewable energy costs and government incentives, which can lead to notable declines in prices, as observed in the USA in Q2 2025 due to decreasing renewable energy costs and supportive policies.32

While there is a clear and massive global demand for green hydrogen, and liquefaction is a proven method for long-distance transport, the energy intensity and cost of liquefaction are significant.30 Furthermore, liquid hydrogen transport is susceptible to "boil-off" losses, where the liquid turns to gas, potentially resulting in losses of up to 5% of hydrogen volume per day depending on the technology.33 The optimal transport distance for liquefied hydrogen appears limited to 2,000-3,000 kilometers to mitigate excessive evaporation losses during transit.34

It is important to note that while the user query specifies liquefaction, alternative hydrogen carriers like ammonia are also viable for long-distance transport, particularly for intercontinental trade. Ammonia can be an effective option for transport distances up to 15,000 kilometers and for quantities starting from 0.4 million tons of hydrogen annually.34 Liquid organic hydrogen carriers (LOHCs) are another option for smaller quantities over distances exceeding 11,000 kilometers.34 This suggests that a comprehensive feasibility study should not be limited to liquid hydrogen but should also consider the optimal form of hydrogen export (liquid hydrogen versus ammonia or LOHCs) based on target markets and transport distances, in order to maximize economic viability and minimize losses across the entire value chain. The choice of carrier significantly impacts the overall cost and logistical complexity of the export infrastructure.

5.3 Export Routes and Transportation Methods

For intercontinental trade, particularly from the Middle East to Europe, pipelines are generally not a practical option due to the vast distances involved.34 In such scenarios, liquefied hydrogen transported via specialized tankers is considered the most appropriate solution.34 The Middle East, notably Saudi Arabia, is actively pursuing the development of green hydrogen export corridors to Europe, exemplified by projects under the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) initiative.35 These efforts underscore the regional commitment to establishing robust clean energy trade routes.

Yemen's Port Infrastructure:

Yemen possesses several strategically located seaports, including Aden, Al Hudaydah, Al Mukalla, and Mocha. Aden stands out as the primary port, boasting deepwater berths and extensive facilities that were historically among the world's preeminent ports.37 Hodeidah also underwent modernization with external assistance.37 The proximity of promising geothermal areas like Rwdhom in Shabwah to the Balhaf YLNG liquefaction and export terminal, and the coastal locations of Abyan (Kuboth area) and Hadramout (Al Hami) with sea accessibility, offer strategic advantages for future export operations.56 However, the current state of Yemen's port infrastructure presents significant challenges. Ports like Hodeidah have historically experienced serious congestion.37 More critically, the Yemen LNG Terminal in Balhaf, once the country's largest industrial investment and capable of exporting 6.7 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG, has been mothballed since mid-2015 due to the ongoing war and prevailing security and political instability..44

Currently operational ports, including Aden, Mukalla, Saleef, and Hodeidah, face substantial operational deficiencies. These include the absence of proper Terminal Operating Systems, poor conditions of quay walls, general equipment issues, and pervasive safety concerns.39 This degraded infrastructure poses significant hurdles for large-scale industrial exports, such as liquid hydrogen.

Red Sea Shipping Risks:

A paramount concern for hydrogen export from Yemen is the severe geopolitical risk associated with Red Sea shipping routes. Attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, particularly within the Bab el-Mandeb strait bordering the Yemeni coast, by Yemen-based Houthi militia, have drastically disrupted global trade.40 In the first two months of 2024, traffic through the Suez Canal, a vital artery for trade between Asia and Europe, plummeted by 50% year-over-year.40 This has forced numerous shipping companies to reroute their vessels around the longer and more costly Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa, leading to substantial supply delays and increased shipping costs.40

This geopolitical volatility directly undermines Yemen's geographical advantage for export. The ongoing conflict not only causes direct damage to critical infrastructure 9 but also creates a high-risk maritime environment, making shipping unreliable and economically unviable for sensitive, high-value cargo like liquid hydrogen. The fact that Yemen's existing LNG export terminal remains shut due to security and political instability further underscores this challenge.44 Therefore, even if a liquefaction plant were constructed, the ability to reliably and economically export hydrogen globally would be severely compromised by external geopolitical factors beyond the project's direct control. Any feasibility study must acknowledge that significant geopolitical de-risking, potentially involving international security guarantees or a sustained cessation of hostilities, is a fundamental prerequisite for establishing a reliable and competitive hydrogen export supply chain from Yemen. Without addressing this, the economic viability of global transport is severely undermined.

Table 3: Hydrogen Liquefaction and Transport Cost Considerations

Parameter	Current Status/Estimate	Implications for Yemen Project
Liquefaction Plant Capital Cost	$50M - $800M (6,000-200,000 kg/day) 30	High upfront investment required. Economies of scale exist but diminish.
Liquefaction Energy Requirement	10-20 kWh/kg H2 30	Demands consistent, low-cost baseload power from geothermal.
Liquefier Capital Cost Contribution to LCOH	~$1.40/kg H2 (for 27,000 kg/day plant) 30	Significant portion of total H2 cost; necessitates efficient plant design.
Total Levelized Cost of Liquid H2 (incl. liquefaction)	~$2.75/kg H2 (for 27,000 kg/day plant) 30	Adds considerable expense beyond production; affects global competitiveness.
Optimal Liquid H2 Transport Distance	2,000-3,000 km (to avoid boil-off losses) 34	Limits direct liquid H2 export markets; necessitates consideration of alternative carriers for longer distances (e.g., ammonia).
Liquid H2 Transport Disadvantages	"Boil-off" losses (up to 5% H2/day) 33	Requires advanced insulation and management; impacts delivered volume and cost.
Alternative Transport (Ammonia)	Effective for up to 15,000 km, 0.4M tons H2/yr 34	Offers wider market reach, potentially lower losses for distant markets.
Yemen Port Infrastructure Status	Operational but with issues (no TOS, poor quay walls, equipment).39 Major LNG terminal mothballed.44	Requires substantial investment in port upgrades and new facilities for liquid hydrogen/ammonia export.
Red Sea Shipping Risks	50% drop in Suez Canal traffic (early 2024) due to Houthi attacks in support of Gaza; rerouting via Cape of Good Hope.40	Severe impediment to reliable and cost-effective export; major geopolitical risk.

This table provides a comprehensive cost analysis for the entire export chain, from liquefaction to delivery. By highlighting the energy intensity of liquefaction, it underscores the importance of low-cost, consistent geothermal power for this stage, reinforcing the value proposition of geothermal. The inclusion of different transport methods and their optimal distances, along with advantages and disadvantages, allows for a strategic comparison, which is vital given the project's requirement for "easy and economy to be transported everywhere." This also provides a basis for discussing trade-offs and potentially recommending alternative carriers like ammonia for very long distances if liquefaction proves too costly or risky due to boil-off. Crucially, by explicitly detailing the impact of security risks on transport reliability and cost, the table reinforces the critical non-technical challenges that must be addressed for project viability.

6. Investment Climate and Operational Challenges in Yemen

6.1 Political Stability and Security Risks

Yemen is widely recognized as one of the world's least developed countries, having been severely impacted by prolonged conflict, pervasive political instability, and a deteriorating economy.43 The ongoing conflict has devastated the nation's energy sector and significantly worsened an already inadequate energy supply.9 Security remains a paramount concern, with terrorist organizations, such as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), having a history of targeting critical infrastructure and government facilities, demonstrating the capacity and intent to execute large-scale attacks.47 The conflict has also led to widespread destruction of essential infrastructure, including water systems, and has caused the displacement of millions, further exacerbating humanitarian crises.43

The pervasive instability has directly contributed to a substantial decline in foreign direct investment (FDI), with net FDI inflows remaining negative since 2011.46 The current political landscape is further complicated by the actions of groups like the Houthis, who have reportedly utilized cease-fires to repair damaged port and airport infrastructure and to strengthen their territorial control, contributing to an unpredictable and fragmented governance environment.42

These factors are not merely "challenges" but fundamental determinants of project viability. The conflict directly causes damage to infrastructure 9, leads to critical fuel shortages 7, disrupts vital trade routes 40, and contributes to the collapse of governance institutions.43 This, in turn, acts as a significant deterrent to foreign investment and makes long-term project planning and execution exceedingly difficult. Therefore, even with immense geothermal potential and a strong global demand for green hydrogen, the current political and security environment renders large-scale, long-term infrastructure projects like geothermal-to-hydrogen export highly improbable without a fundamental shift towards stability. Any comprehensive feasibility study must first address the prerequisite of a stable and secure operating environment, potentially requiring international guarantees or a post-conflict reconstruction phase to establish a viable foundation for investment.

6.2 Infrastructure Deficiencies

Beyond the severely damaged energy grid, Yemen's broader infrastructure suffers from significant deficiencies that would impact a large-scale industrial project. Water transmission and distribution networks, for instance, are plagued by high leakage rates, often exceeding 50% of the total volume transported, and are in a state of structural degradation due to insufficient maintenance.43

The nation's port infrastructure, critical for export operations, also presents considerable challenges. While key ports like Aden and Hodeidah exist, they lack modern Terminal Operating Systems, suffer from poor quay wall conditions, and experience equipment issues.39 The Yemen LNG Terminal in Balhaf, a major industrial asset, remains shut down due to security and political instability, highlighting the vulnerability of large-scale export facilities..44 Furthermore, the internal road network includes thousands of miles of tracks that are only passable by all-terrain vehicles, posing significant logistical hurdles for the transport of heavy equipment and materials, as well as the eventual movement of goods to ports.37 These infrastructure shortcomings would necessitate substantial additional investment and development to support a project of this scale.

6.3 Regulatory and Policy Frameworks

The regulatory and policy environment in Yemen, while showing some aspirational progress, is characterized by significant inconsistencies and a lack of effective implementation. In many developing countries, the absence of clear policies, a shortage of qualified professionals in government bodies, complicated regulations, and a lack of incentives are major barriers to geothermal development.19 Yemen specifically lacks comprehensive administrative strategies to promote and regulate sustainable energy resources.49

A critical issue is the operational reality where government officials routinely disregard official letters and memoranda issued to investors, and there are often unclear lines of decision-making authority within the government.45 Pervasive corruption and bribery are also common, creating an unpredictable and high-risk environment for foreign investors.45

While Yemen's Investment Law No. 3 of 2025 formally promotes investment in productive and service projects, including electric power and renewable energy, and offers financial and administrative incentives 50, there is a stark contradiction between this stated policy intent and the actual business environment. The formal legal and policy framework exists on paper, but its consistent application and enforcement are severely hampered by the dysfunctional state apparatus and ongoing conflict. This creates a high degree of "regulatory and policy uncertainty" 5 that deters long-term, large-scale foreign investment. For a project of this magnitude, investors would require not just the existence of favorable policies but demonstrable political will, institutional capacity, and a secure environment for these policies to be consistently applied and enforced. This implies that international development finance institutions (DFIs) and multilateral organizations would need to play a significant role in de-risking investments and providing guarantees, similar to the World Bank's successful Yemen Emergency Electricity Access Project (YEEAP).13

6.4 Human Capital and Local Expertise Availability

The development and operation of complex geothermal and hydrogen production facilities demand a highly skilled workforce, encompassing exploration geologists, engineers, plant operators, and maintenance technicians.19 Yemen, however, faces a significant shortage of local expertise in the energy sector, a challenge exacerbated by the prolonged conflict that has led to a substantial brain drain, with many skilled workers having left the country.48 The nation grapples with high unemployment rates and a notable mismatch between available skills and market demands, compounded by limited access to quality education and vocational training.48

While some programs exist to train technical staff within the Public Electricity Corporation (PEC) to address the lack of qualified personnel 51, these efforts are insufficient for the scale of a major industrial project. The conflict's impact extends to the foundational educational and vocational training infrastructure, and the persistent instability drives skilled professionals to seek opportunities elsewhere, creating a severe human capital deficit. This deficit, in turn, increases reliance on expensive foreign expertise and elevates operational risks for complex projects. Therefore, any long-term investment plan must integrate a significant component for local capacity building, vocational training, and potentially, structured international partnerships designed to facilitate knowledge and skills transfer. This is not merely a social responsibility but a critical operational necessity for ensuring the project's long-term sustainability, operational efficiency, and cost-effectiveness.

6.5 Water Resource Management

Yemen is one of the most water-scarce countries globally, with its renewable water resources steadily diminishing.49 The country faces a severe water crisis characterized by excessive groundwater depletion, exacerbated by institutional collapse and ongoing armed conflict.43 Water transmission and distribution networks suffer from high leakage rates, and critical water infrastructure has been damaged or destroyed, cutting off millions from reliable water sources.43

Geothermal power plants, while often requiring less water than fossil fuel-based plants, still have water needs for cooling and, critically, for reinjection to maintain reservoir pressure and sustainability.29 Electrolysis, the core process for green hydrogen production, also requires a water source.3 The existing water crisis, intensified by conflict and mismanagement, means that any large-scale industrial project with significant water demands will face substantial challenges and could potentially exacerbate existing social conflicts over scarce resources.

However, advancements in geothermal technology offer solutions to mitigate water consumption. Binary cycle geothermal plants, for instance, can utilize dry cooling technology, and fluids from the geothermal reservoir are reinjected in a fully closed-loop process, minimizing water loss.53 Furthermore, some advanced geothermal systems (Enhanced Geothermal Systems - EGS) can utilize degraded or brackish water sources, thereby avoiding competition with freshwater resources needed for agriculture or communities.53 This means that while water scarcity is a fundamental constraint, technological choices can significantly reduce the project's freshwater footprint. Nevertheless, a comprehensive feasibility study must include a detailed water resource assessment and a robust water management plan, potentially incorporating desalination if freshwater sources are insufficient, to ensure the project's sustainability and avoid intensifying existing water conflicts.

7. Policy Framework and Investment Incentives

7.1 Existing Renewable Energy Policies and Investment Laws

The Yemeni government has articulated clear policy objectives regarding renewable energy and foreign investment. The stated aim is to optimize the use of domestic energy sources, increase the share of renewable energy in electricity generation to 15-20% by 2025, reduce dependence on fossil fuels, expand electricity access to rural communities, and actively attract foreign investment.54

A significant development in this regard is Investment Law No. 3 of 2025. This law is designed to promote investment in productive and service projects, including those in electric power generation and the transition to renewable energy. It offers a range of financial and administrative incentives specifically targeted at projects with costs between $100,000 and $1 million, aiming to maximize benefits from both local and foreign investments.50 The government has also been engaged in continuous short, medium, and long-run planning processes to facilitate economic growth and sustainable development, with a stated goal of improving the enabling environment for local and foreign investment and enhancing international trust in the Yemeni economy.55

7.2 Proposed Incentives and Support Mechanisms

To effectively encourage and attract substantial investment in renewable energy, particularly for large-scale projects like geothermal-to-green-hydrogen, several proven policy and financial mechanisms should be implemented. These include:

Feed-in Laws: These mechanisms allow producers of renewable energy to sell electricity at a preferential, guaranteed price over a fixed period, providing price stability that investors prefer.54
Quota Systems: These systems mandate electricity companies to generate a certain percentage of their total production from renewable sources, with penalties for non-compliance. This encourages investment in new and emerging renewable technologies.54
Tenders: Competitive bidding processes where contracts are awarded to the lowest-priced projects, often combined with guarantees to purchase all generated power at a specified price.54
Financial Incentives: These include investment subsidies, low-interest loans, increased demand for green electricity through policy, tax benefits, and accelerated depreciation of capital subsidies.54

The World Bank's Yemen Emergency Electricity Access Project (YEEAP) serves as a successful model for international support in this challenging environment. YEEAP provided grants and established financing windows for high-quality solar solutions, leveraging microfinance institutions and supporting local markets.13 This demonstrates a viable model for how international financial institutions can de-risk investments and facilitate private sector participation in Yemen.

However, a critical challenge lies in the gap between aspiration and reality. While Yemen has articulated policies and a new investment law that signal a desire for renewable energy development and foreign investment 50, the pervasive issues of political instability, corruption, and a lack of consistent governance significantly undermine the effectiveness of these policies.45 The formal legal and policy framework may exist on paper, but its actual implementation and enforcement are severely hampered by the dysfunctional state apparatus and ongoing conflict. This creates a high degree of regulatory and policy uncertainty 5 that deters long-term, large-scale foreign investment. For a major geothermal-to-hydrogen project, investors would require not just the existence of favorable policies but demonstrable political will, robust institutional capacity, and a secure environment for these policies to be consistently applied and enforced. This implies that international development finance institutions (DFIs) and multilateral organizations would need to play a significant role in de-risking investments and providing guarantees to attract the necessary private capital.

8. Strategic Recommendations and Way Forward

8.1 Phased Development Approach

A multi-phase development strategy is strongly recommended for a geothermal-to-green-hydrogen project in Yemen. This approach should begin with detailed resource assessment and pilot projects in the most promising and relatively secure geothermal fields, such as Dhamar and Al Lisi-Isbil, and also consider newly highlighted areas like Shabwah, Abyan, and Hadramout due to their potential and proximity to export infrastructure.56 The significant discrepancy in geothermal potential estimates and the interruption of previous exploration activities due to security concerns highlight a critical data gap.12 Committing to large-scale investment without accurate resource characterization is financially imprudent. Pilot projects, particularly those leveraging high-temperature resources, can serve to validate the geothermal potential, refine cost models, and test operational parameters in the Yemeni context. This phased approach allows for incremental learning, reduces upfront capital exposure, and gradually builds local expertise, while demonstrating project viability and attracting further investment.

8.2 Risk Mitigation Strategies (Political, Security, Financial, Technical)

Addressing the pervasive political instability, severe security threats, and conflict-related damage is paramount. These are not merely challenges but fundamental determinants of project viability. Without a fundamental shift in the security and governance landscape, large-scale, long-term infrastructure projects remain highly improbable. Therefore, a primary recommendation is to prioritize a stable and secure operating environment through sustained international mediation, the establishment of robust security guarantees, and comprehensive engagement with all relevant stakeholders. Financial risks, exacerbated by instability, necessitate the implementation of robust risk-sharing mechanisms, potentially involving multilateral development banks, export credit agencies, and political risk insurance. This is a non-negotiable prerequisite for attracting any significant foreign direct investment.

8.3 Partnership Models (Public-Private, International Cooperation)

Geothermal projects typically involve high upfront capital costs 18, and Yemen's domestic financial resources are severely constrained.46 Therefore, fostering robust public-private partnerships (PPPs) with transparent risk-sharing frameworks is crucial. Actively seeking international cooperation and funding from development finance institutions (DFIs), such as the World Bank and UNDP, is indispensable. These organizations have a proven track record of supporting energy access projects in Yemen, as demonstrated by initiatives like the Yemen Emergency Electricity Access Project (YEEAP).7 Leveraging these existing successful models can significantly bridge the investment gap, mitigate perceived risks, and accelerate project development.

8.4 Capacity Building and Local Content Development

Yemen currently suffers from a shortage of skilled labor and local expertise in the energy sector.20 Relying solely on foreign expertise for a project of this scale would be both unsustainable and prohibitively costly. A significant investment in comprehensive training and education programs for Yemeni professionals is therefore essential. These programs should cover all aspects of the project, from geothermal exploration and power plant operation to hydrogen production technologies. Prioritizing local employment and developing a robust local supply chain will not only ensure the long-term sustainability and operational efficiency of the project but also generate substantial economic benefits and foster social acceptance within the host communities.

8.5 Recommendations for Policy and Regulatory Enhancements

Despite the existence of new investment laws and stated government objectives to promote renewable energy 50, the current regulatory environment is often characterized by opacity, inconsistency, and corruption.45 For a large-scale geothermal and hydrogen project, it is imperative to work collaboratively with the Yemeni government to establish a transparent, consistent, and enforceable legal and regulatory framework. This framework must include clear and streamlined processes for land acquisition, efficient permitting procedures, and stable tariff mechanisms, such as long-term power purchase agreements or feed-in tariffs.54 A predictable and supportive regulatory environment is fundamental to attracting and retaining private sector investment, providing the necessary confidence for long-term commitments in a challenging operational context.

Conclusion

Yemen possesses significant, largely untapped geothermal potential, strategically located to leverage the burgeoning global demand for green hydrogen. The technical pathways for geothermal power generation, electrolysis for hydrogen production, and subsequent liquefaction for transport are well-established and demonstrate promising long-term cost competitiveness. However, the prevailing political instability, severe security risks, and profound deficiencies in existing infrastructure and governance present formidable, indeed overriding, barriers to investment. The current state of the Red Sea shipping lanes, impacted by ongoing conflict, further complicates the economic viability of global hydrogen export.

A feasible study for a geothermal-to-green-hydrogen-for-export project in Yemen must therefore extend beyond purely technical and economic assessments. It necessitates a holistic approach that prioritizes de-risking through a phased development strategy, beginning with detailed resource assessment and pilot projects. Crucially, it requires robust international partnerships and a fundamental commitment to improving the security and governance landscape, including transparent regulatory enforcement and significant human capital development. While the long-term vision offers transformative economic and environmental benefits for Yemen, including energy independence and a new export industry, realizing this potential demands a concerted and sustained effort to address the deep-seated challenges that currently impede large-scale foreign investment and reliable international operations. Without a foundational shift in the geopolitical and internal stability, the economic and logistical advantages of Yemen's geothermal potential for global green hydrogen export will remain largely theoretical.

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الينابيع الحارة .. مقومات تتميز بها اليمن.pdf

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